Should anyone’s “analysis” of extremely complex systems, such as geopolitics, be taken seriously? or, Does anyone take a 5 year old’s “analysis” of decently complex systems, like big city politics, seriously?

• AI News Team
• February 16, 2026

​Published on February 15, 2026 6:44 PM GMTOne of the things that’s always bugged me is the unstated assumption that its even possible for someone online to produce credible analysis of extremely complex systems, like geopolitics, if given enough time. But upon closer examination it doesn’t really seem to be an assumption backed by anything, there’s no reason or force that guarantees at least 1 human being writing texts online… is in fact capable of doing that.For example:If we assume geopolitics is somwhere between 100x and 10,000x more complex than the typical dynamics in a typical large city, order of magnitude ballpark range. And that the effective real world gap between a very smart middle aged writer and a very smart 5 year old is also around 100x to 10,000x.Then if we dont see any five year old’s analysis of city politics taken seriously… Not even for outlier 99.9th percentile five year olds focused on analyzing it with a large time expenditure… this would suggest we should give likewise treatment to the scaled up scenario.Has anyone else thought about this before?Discuss ​Read More