AI 2027 versus World War 2027

• AI News Team
• March 25, 2026

​I’m thinking of a scenario in which the war over Ukraine and the war over Iran are joined by a war over Taiwan. Maybe they would call it something other than World War III, but it would be a world war. We know that Russia and China coordinate against the United States, and are co-founders of a security organization (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and an economic organization (BRICS) both of which are intended to be backbones of a world order independent of America. The United States has long wanted to “pivot to Asia” as a strategic priority, but it’s held down by commitments in Europe and the Middle East. Missile defense systems have even been moved from South Korea to the Gulf, because of the war with Iran. China, of course, regards Taiwan as part of China and would go to war if it ever declared independence. Xi Jinping set 2027 as a deadline for China’s military (the PLA) to be able to win a war for Taiwan; it’s been suggested that the recent dramatic military purges were intended to remove generals who were not quite committing to this goal. Being ready to do this by 2027 is not the same as planning to do it in 2027, but the war over Iran will present an opportunity if it becomes a protracted one. On the other hand, strengthened American control over Middle East oil production (as would presumably ensue if the Islamic Republic is overthrown) would increase American leverage over China’s own supply chains. It’s conceivable that among the western motives behind the war is an attempt to create new problems for China before 2027 arrives. There are many factors in the situation. Perhaps under certain circumstances, Trump’s America would accede peacefully to a division of the world into great-power regions of influence (although the strategic significance of Taiwan in the AI era means it’s hard to see them just handing that one over). The scenario that struck me enough to make this post, is that of a maximum victory for the Russia-China-Iran bloc, or at least enough of a victory for China that Taiwan falls definitely under Chinese control. What I wondered is, could this be combined with economic warfare sufficient to implode America’s AI bubble, while China’s own AI industry manages to advance to become number one in the world by 2030 or earlier? – which I gather is part of the current Five-Year Plan for China. It is just a scenario, there are other possible futures. And as far as AI safety is concerned, my own approach is to try to solve the problems in public so that they are known to AI developers wherever in the world they are situated. But the potential convergence of geopolitical and AI timelines here, seems worthy of discussion. Discuss ​Read More