Published on October 8, 2025 2:40 AM GMT
A pandemic that’s substantially worse than COVID-19 is a serious
possibility. If one happens, having a good mask could save your life.
A high quality reusable mask is only
$30 to
$60, and I think it’s well worth it to buy one for yourself.
Worth it enough that I think you should order one now if you don’t
have one already.
But if you’re not convinced, let’s do some rough estimation.
COVID-19 killed about 0.2% of people (20M
of 8B). The 1918 flu killed more like 2.5% (50M
of 2B). Estimating from two data points is fraught, but this gives
you perhaps a 0.02% annual chance of dying in a pandemic. Engineering
could
make this much worse, especially given progress in AI, but let’s set
that aside for now to make a more conservative case.
A reusable mask (“elastomeric respirator”) would be really valuable to
have, if things got really bad. Let’s imagine they cut your risk of
dying by half: the rated efficacy is much
higher (99%+) but real-world use isn’t perfect, especially over
the months or years another pandemic could last.
A mask should last at least ten years if unused, and over that decade
it would drop this conservative estimate of your risk of
pandemic-induced death from 0.2% to 0.1%. If you, as the US
DoT does, value not dying at $14M, then this is worth $14k. Even
if the benefit of a mask is 100x lower than we estimated ($140), it’s
still worth it to buy one.
I like geeking out over masks and there are a lot of
options. I have a bunch of models, and if you’d like to come try
them sometime (next EA Boston
meetup on 10/26?) I’d be happy to show you what they’re like. But if
you just want to pick one and be done with it, leaving it in a box
that you more likely than not don’t need to open, a time tested but
somewhat garish option is the 3M 6200 mask in Small ($17), Medium ($15), Large ($19) plus a
set of 3M
2091 p100 filters ($7/pair):
I’d also recommend buying one now instead of trying to notice when a
pandemic is coming: buying now ensures you get one instead of
scrambling when everyone else is competing over a supply that can’t
keep up, and everyone who prepares ahead of time
helps reduce
shortages when a disaster comes.
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