The false confidence theorem and Bayesian reasoning
Published on January 10, 2026 5:14 PM GMTA little backgroundI first heard about the False…
Category: Opinion
A Proposal for a Better ARENA: Shifting from Teaching to Research Sprints
Published on January 10, 2026 4:56 PM GMTTLDRI propose restructuring the current ARENA program, which…
Are there any extremely strong arguments that Acausal extortion is ineffective?
Published on January 10, 2026 1:37 PM GMTThe topic of acausal extortion (particularly variants of…
AI Incident Forecasting
Published on January 10, 2026 2:17 AM GMTI'm excited to share that my team and…
Finding high signal people – applying PageRank to Twitter
Published on January 10, 2026 2:21 AM GMTCross post, adapted for LessWrongSeveral challenges add friction…
Moral-Epistemic Scrupulosity: A Cross-Framework Failure Mode of Truth-Seeking
Published on January 10, 2026 2:24 AM GMTCrossposted from https://substack.com/home/post/p-183478095 Epistemic status: Personal experience with a…
What do we mean by “impossible”?
Published on January 10, 2026 12:01 AM GMT(I'm reposting this here from an old Dreamwidth…
Where’s the $100k iPhone?
Published on January 9, 2026 11:48 PM GMTI’m not quite sure how unequal the world…
Taking LLMs Seriously (As Language Models)
Published on January 9, 2026 11:23 PM GMTThis is my attempt to write down what…
Objective Questions
Published on January 9, 2026 9:09 PM GMTEpistemic Status: I wrote this a few days…